Project Summary
RETINA – Realistic Evaluation of Temporal Interaction of Natural hAzards
The RETINA project focuses on problems of Europe-wide interest
concerning seismic risk, volcanic risk, and landslide risk. Each of these natural
hazards occurs in multiple member states, more than are included in the
project, so the research will be applicable to the greater European community.
However, the most important added value to the community is hazard mitigation
since given the population density of Europe, when a major catastrophic event
occurs in an individual member state, it will require mobilization of resources
at a European scale.
Since Europe must
ultimately absorb the consequences of major catastrophes in individual member
states, Europe has an economic and social interest in verifying that hazard
analysis for urban development and risk management adheres to norms set at the
European level.
RETINA will define elevated risk
situations, and attempt to determine thresholds, represented by coupled
phenomena that may be observable over time scales of months to weeks, that
provide a realistic possibility to prepare for interventions, at a European
scale if needed.
The objective of RETINA is to support
the implementation of new European scale isk management systems by civil
defense participants in the project by developing models and technologies for
understanding the mechanical coupling and temporal interactions between
earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides. To achieve this goal,RETINA seeks to:
1)Recognize periods of elevated hazard by monitoring the temporal evolution of
geodetic and seismic signals. 2)Locate areas of elevated hazard by mapping
crustal deformation and identifying areas of rapid strain accumulation.
3)Identify from these maps areas where one event may trigger another. 4)Derive
exploitable models for the physical mechanisms underlying correlated events.
5)Provide a component of hazard and risk assessment that is currently lacking,
by re-evaluating the probability of hazardous events in time and space
including theeffects of triggering. 6)Share expertise and resources in risk
management at the European level.
The expected results will be
improved models and better understanding of the interaction of natural hazards.
Coupled hazard catalogs and maps for target areas of the Alps, Iceland, and
Azores; modular automatic deformation monitoring systems using INSAR and CGPS;
definition of realistic "elevated risk situations" with accompanying
seismic, landslide and volcano hazard coupling models and documented case
studies. The expected impact on existing and planned risk management operations
in Europe will be a temporal component to risk assessment that will improve the
capability of civil protection operations to respond quickly to emergencies.